13.0.10.13.6 - 9 Kame - 14 Xul - G5 - 2023-07-23

I gotta confess that most of my writing is focused on emotional shit, personally a relatively important matter, but in the great order of things it is non-important at all. Perhaps nothing is important at all. Everything is a matter of scales and some scales have more heft than others. During the last few weeks I have had conversations with my Guatemalans friends about the political situation in my country. The recent elections have created a lot of uncertainty, mainly because the elite in office sees a possible triumph of the newcomer party “Semilla” as a menace to their status quo. Everyday I see stories about the people in power trying to sabotage the recent elections, raids in Semilla’s headquarters, calls for cancelation of the whole process due to so-called fraudulent votes, mass media campaigns against Semilla’s presidential candidate. On the other hand, there is some sort of hope among Guatemalan people, they really hope that Semilla’s administration could lead the country towards a more democratic, efficient and prosperous state. Nevertheless, the road towards that better future is uncertain by itself, or rather full of obstacles, corruption inside institutions plus a plethora of individual’s and oligarch’s interests at stake. 

Today I read an article by Edgar Balsells published by Plaza Pública, —Balsells is an economist based in Guatemala—. In that article he criticized the current political elites because of the fact that most of their people in office are absolute incompetents, they know close to zero about public administration and most of them have a meager educational background. According to Balsells, this combination of low education and low capacity produces weak, inefficient government institutions. And I agree, that is a quite accurate explanation of the current deplorable state of Guatemalan institutions. But I know my country’s situation, and I am aware about the pathetic idiosyncrasy among many “well educated people”. I told my friends that I have a bigger fear: what if after the new administration takes office and new bureaucrats replace the old, incompetent ones with new professionals and well educated people, what if after all those changes everything still fails, what if those so-called well-intentioned experts are not able to make any difference at all in the country. That could very well be the case, especially because one or two good leaders —or a bunch of them— cannot change institutions so easily, people in office, middle range officers and low range officers seize their positions like leeches and they are so used to the way things are already that moving a volcano could be a way easier task to accomplish.

In the very case of Guatemala I am talking about a public administration that works based on bribery, cronyism and impunity. Small changes for better could not be welcomed because Guatemalan institutions —and their personnel— are far from the ideal ones. Opposition will be ruthless and I have the feeling that corruption will end up swallowing those well-intentioned newcomers. They will have to negotiate, create alliances and get by amid the political jungle of Guatemala, and I am not sure if that could be achievable. If those newcomers fail, despite their professional expertise and education, then what’s next? Perhaps it could be the end of democracy, or at least the end of faith in democracy in my country. If that is the case, then so be it.